The jobs data offer the latest snapshot into an economy that appears to have lost some steam from 2018 but continues to grow. Heading into President Trump’s fourth year in office, the labor market remains one of the economy’s biggest engines, and Trump regularly touts the low unemployment rate as one of his top achievements.
“Looking at the high number of jobs that were added in November, you might forget that the story for most of this year was that the economy was slowing down," Indeed Hiring Lab research director Nick Bunker wrote in an analysis of the data Friday. "The slowdown did happen, but we can move into 2020 with a bit more optimism.”
Still, ongoing uncertainty around Trump’s trade war have left businesses confused at how to shield themselves from a future downturn. The White House is in the midst of trying to secure a partial trade pact with China as well as revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Corporate anxiety has slowed business investment, but it doesn’t appear to have slowed hiring much in recent months. The U.S. economy added an average of 205,000 jobs per month from September through November.
The tally was boosted by thousands of General Motors workers who returned to their jobs in late October after a lengthy strike. Data showed that within manufacturing, jobs in motor vehicles and parts was up by 41,000 in November.
“We know that the GM strike has been pushing these numbers around a bit, serving as a damper in October and providing a lift in November," said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com. "Other data indicates that manufacturing remains stressed because of trade tensions and tariffs, as well as the struggling global economy.”
Manufacturing, however, appears to have regained its footing a bit after several months of extreme pressure. Roughly 54,000 new manufacturing jobs were added in November, BLS said, a number that included the 41,000 GM workers returning. That’s an improvement from past months.
The retail trade stayed about unchanged, with employment rising in general merchandise stores and car vehicle and parts dealers. But clothing stores shed about 18,000 jobs.
Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 3.1 percent, just slightly up from an increase of 3 percent reported last month.
Health care added 45,000 jobs, including in ambulatory health care services and in hospitals. The health care sector has added 414,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
Jobs in leisure and hospitality continued their upward trend. The industry has gained 219,000 jobs over the past four months. But the mining sector shed 7,000 jobs last month, and mining jobs are down by 19,000 since a recent peak in May.
The labor market has remained one of the brightest spots in the economy, and combined with the high stock market has contributed to high levels of consumer spending and a relatively rosy consumer sentiment.
Many employers are still struggling to find qualified workers to fill jobs, but other companies have had to cut jobs because of a recent pullback in manufacturing demand.
The labor market’s health could have big implications for the 2020 elections.
Concerns about a looming recession have waned, but the economy has still shown signs of cooling. Economists have warned the mounting toll of President Trump’s protracted trade war has strained global trade growth and slowed the creation of American jobs. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell has said Trump’s tariffs have wrought so much uncertainty that companies are delaying investments and slowing the economy.
But major parts of the economy continue to show resilience, buoyed in part by consumer spending and the low unemployment rate.
Uncertainty remains an issue. Just this week, Trump said he could wait to strike a deal with China until after the 2020 election, sending stocks plunging. The volatility followed Trump’s announcement he was reimposing tariffs on steel and aluminum coming from Brazil and Argentina, though the timeline for this action is uncertain.
Diane Swonk, chief economist at accounting firm Grant Thornton, expected November’s numbers to rise significantly from the month before as GM workers returned to work. Roughly 48,000 strikers, and 12,000 workers who suffered layoffs during the strike, are expected to have returned to the payrolls, Swonk said.
Still, Swonk projected some drag on employment thanks to the loss of 12,000 temporary workers who wrapped up their jobs for the 2020 census. Holiday hires were expected to stay muted so long as retail stores continued closing their doors.
Seasonal retail hiring is also down. Compounding store closures is a shift among retailers to focus on their websites and distribution centers to meet customer demand, rather than stocking physical stores with employees, said Julia Pollak, an economist at ZipRecruiter, an online employment marketplace.
Hamrick expected November to bring solid job growth. But he noted that so far 2019 is running 19% below the pace this same time last year.
“The job market remains broadly tight, helping to provide a lift in wage gains with average hourly earnings up 3.1 percent over the past year,” Hamrick said Friday morning.
The country added a better-than-expected 128,000 jobs in October when the jobless rate rose slightly to 3.6 percent. Those numbers were affected by the General Motors strike, in which workers shut down production for six weeks at the automaker. The strike spurred layoffs from Canada to Mexico in related industries and caused a rise in unemployment claims in states like Michigan.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/12/06/labor-market-remained-strong-november-us-economy-added-jobs-jobless-rate-fell-percent/
2019-12-06 14:23:00Z
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